Editor – Southeast Asia Analyst.
Observers believed that the Thailand – Cambodia border conflict would blow over in a matter of weeks when it first broke out on July 2025. Afterall, armed conflict between 2 Southeast Asian states was thought to be a thing of the past. The situation however proved otherwise. The 2 countries on 28th July and 26th October, under Malaysia’s supervision, stamped out ceasefire agreements and broke it twice. In the first case it was broken up in less than 24 hours. As of writing this article gunfire is still being exchanged from the two with Thailand even rolling out airstrikes in early December. Since the first gunfire in July over half a million people were displaced on both sides of the border, Prisoners of War are still in foreign custody and nearly 100 civilians and military personnel have lost their lives. The situation is bleak with pleas to stop the war from not only Southeast Asia but world wide are falling on deaf ears.
Many pointed to deep seated historic tension between 2 as the cause of this conflict. The tension does not only extend to modern history where the International Court of Justice ruled in favour of Cambodia in both 2013 and 1962 but as far as the medieval era when kingdoms from both Thailand and Cambodia would expand and claim sovereignty over the temples along the border. Others offered a more far-fetched explanation claiming that the war was caused to force US President Trump to incentivize both countries to a ceasefire through lower tariffs and investments.
The reality of the matter is deeper and more complicated than it seems at first glance. Once war breaks out between countries it is incredibly difficult for de-escalation, almost as if war has its own logic. Momentum builds up, if one side strikes, the other is expected to retaliate as restraint looks weak, leaders are bound by expectations. Although politics might cause war, war will not obey politics for long. This reality between Thailand and Cambodia is being fueled by short sightedness between the decision makers in both countries.
Right off the bat, Cambodia’s Hun dynasty did not shy away from using the border crisis in July to their advantage. Former Prime Minister (PM) Hun Sen released the voice recording between himself and then Thai PM Paengtongtarn Sinawarata where she revealed her opinions on the Thai military. This got her ousted as PM. A strategic move to protect Cambodia’s casino industry and elite ran scam centers from Thai competition and investigations. It did not take long for the Cambodian parliament that hosted barely any opposition to pass a citizenship law which allowed the government to revoke citizenship from Cambodian nationals who “collude” with foreign powers. Even up to now, the government exploits the conflict to steer attention away from Cambodia’ scam centers and frame current PM Hun Manet as the defender of Cambodian sovereignty.
Although the Thai establishment is slightly more subtle about it, they are not much different. The Thai military imposed martial law along the western border with Cambodia. To observers it might seem like an understandable move but given its track record of interfering with civilian politics, the Thai military’s next move should be monitored with caution. A more concerning case comes from PM Anutin Charnvirakul decision to dissolve the Thai Parliament citing need for stability right after fresh border clashes occurred in early December. It is also not by coincidence that the dissolution came after PM Anutin’s Bhumjaithai faced accusation in failing to revise the military drafted constitution. PM Anutin continues to take a nationalistic stance in facing the border conflict. Many believe this to be an act to distract the public from the flood in southern Thailand that left nearly 200 people killed along with his potential connections to scam centers.
The border conflict is exploited and prolonged to achieve short term goals that only serve the ruling elite. Aside from the obvious capital wasted and diminished political stability from the conflict, the public are facing the brunt end from it such as undermined institutions which are under the whims and wishes of the ruling elite. Effects of the conflict reached Laos as oil shipments from Thailand were halted due to concerns on the landlocked country exporting the oil to Cambodia. While the impact of the war is felt by the nationals of these countries today, it could be very much possible the rest of Southeast Asia will feel it soon. The region is heavily reliant on foreign direct investment. The presence of war and along with ASEAN’s inability to defuse it repel potential investors.
Despite the difficulties Thailand and Cambodia face in stopping the conflict, if the decision makers from the 2 countries do not show effort to create meaningful change to inch closer to peace, it will expose where their priorities truly lie and undermine their commitments to ASEAN.