Editor – Southeast Asia Analyst
5 years into the brutal civil war, the Myanmar Junta is holding a three phase election which is coming to end. The elections were globally condemned as a sham and regarded as an attempt to gain global recognition and legitimacy. Voter turnout was reportedly low and only held in areas controlled by the Junta which amounts to less than a quarter of the entire landmass. Despite the limitation from Junta’s capabilities, it just might be successful in gaining the recognition it needs from various states, including its fellow Southeast Asian states.
The Philippine’s foreign secretary and ASEAN’s special envoy to Myanmar, Tess Lazaro publicly stated that ASEAN will not endorse the election results. However her and her neighbor’s actions suggest otherwise. Lazaro’s only publicized bilateral meetings were only with the Junta and engagements with the opposition were limited to multilateral meets. Similar steps were taken by her predecessors and former ASEAN chairs; namely Malaysia and Laos. The Junta always enjoyed deeper and formal engagements with ASEAN chair while meetings with the opposing National Unity Governments (NUG) and Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) were mostly sidelined. While one might excuse this due to ASEAN chairs’ rotational nature coupled with diverse divisions within the opposition, a number ASEAN Member States went out of their way indirectly to legitimize the Junta held elections.
Even before the elections began in Myanmar, Indonesia’s president Prabowo urged ASEAN to consider sending observers to ensure “transparency and accountability”. Brunei, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia supported the elections with the last 2 sending observers to the war torn country, signaling willingness to legitimize the election results.
The motivation behind these actions can be interpreted as such; support the more organized side of the civil war and get it over with. The civil war ending with the Junta on top will usher in better stability thus bringing in better economic opportunities and credibility for ASEAN as a whole. Additionally, a consolidated Myanmar under the Junta could also mean normalizing authoritarian/ Semi Authoritarian regimes in the region which could serve various Southeast Asian countries in quelling their own domestic grievances.
The dangers of endorsing these elections is that it is only covering a blanket over the real source of the problem. Even if the Junta held election results are legitimized, the fighting will not stop as long as NUG and the diverse EAOs with their own interest are not addressed. With China hedging its bet between the Junta and EAOs, EAOs grew fairly powerful and to this day maintains strong positions in Myanmar’s border with China and India. The influence and demands of these organizations cannot be underestimated as seen from 2023’s operations 1027.
Although there are still some within ASEAN that refused to support the elections such as Malaysia and Timor Leste, this episode in the region revealed where Southeast Asian states priorities truly lie. Southeast Asian statesmen are always so quick to declare support for lasting peace in Myanmar through an all inclusive process. However when faced with the options, Southeast Asian states are willing to dismiss due diligence and support an authoritarian regime in the interest of stability and economic opportunities.